Paicines, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

946
FXUS66 KMTR 050442
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
942 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 322 AM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

 - Elevated breezes across channels, gaps, passes, and across the
   marine environment today.

 - Elevated fire weather threat for wind corridors and portions of
   the Santa Lucia Range through Monday and again late this week.

 - Subtle warming trend expected through midweek with pockets of
   moderate HeatRisk across far interior locations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

No changes to the forecast this evening. Winds have begun to ease
for most locations, but remain elevated across typical gaps, passes
and the higher elevations. Tomorrow will begin a gradual warm up
that will bring temperatures back up to seasonal averages the
next couple of days, then slightly above normal through the
remainder of the extended forecast. Although some fire weather
concerns will subside with the easing winds tonight, we have seen
a number of small fire starts in our area that have fortunately
been quickly extinguished thus far. However, as our dry season
persists, our fuels are beginning to dry and will continue to
respond to the warmer temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1258 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)

Wall to wall sunshine across the forecast area this afternoon. Not
even any pesky lingering stratus along the coast. Increased
sunshine and lack of a noticeable marine layer has led to warmer
24 hour trends. One thing that hasn`t changed since yesterday are
the winds. Onshore flow remains, which is resulting in another
breezy day around the region. While slightly less than Sunday
still seeing some gusts 25-40 mph. The biggest weather impact in
the near term will be elevated fire weather conditions with
breezy onshore, lower humidity, and dry grasses.

Tonight through Tuesday...Another night with a broken up marine
layer or patchy stratus. Would not be surprise to see a few
interior locations dip into the 40s again for temps thanks to
clear skies and sheltered winds. The subtle warming trend noticed
today will continue on Tuesday as the temperatures creep up a few
more degrees. Highs will be in the 60s/70s coast and mid 70s to
lower 90s interior. Onshore flow will remains, but winds will be
weaker than Monday and over the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 135 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Long term forecast will feature a more compressed marine layer
with warmer temperatures. While the longwave pattern this week
doesn`t scream heat it does show higher 500mb heights and warmer
850mb temperatures. Those two items are usually good indicators
of warmer weather on the way.

No big changes to previous forecast. Daytime highs will increase
3-5 degrees through Thursday before peaking Thursday/Friday and
then gradually moderating through the weekend. That being said,
onshore flow remains, which will keep the coastal areas much
cooler than the interior. In other words, bigger temperature
spread across the forecast area. More 60s/70s along the coast,
but far interior locations will soar into the 90s and even crack
100 in the warmest locations. The warmer temperatures will nudge
HeatRisk upward, but still mainly Minor to Moderate. The warmer
airmass will also make the thermal belts more noticeable at night
with the hills staying in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 926 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Winds have eased across the terminals and are expected to return
closer to typical strength going forward. Current satellite
imagery shows clear skies continue to prevail after sunset, with
an increasing likelihood of VFR conditions through the TAF period.
While the guidance continues to hint at the possibility for MVFR
ceilings overnight, the persistence forecast was pretty clear and
the relative humidity is anywhere from 3 to 12% drier than it was
24 hours ago. While some patchy clouds will likely form early
Tuesday morning, all signs indicate the coverage will be even less
than we saw this morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period as the wind speed decreased back to more typical
conditions. The TAFs are fighting against the guidance a little
bit as GFSLAMP brings a 40% chance of MVFR ceilings to SFO, and
70% for OAK. At SFO particularly, the temperature is 3 degrees
warmer and dew point 3 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. After the
clear skies this morning and drier air now, I believe there is a
good chance that the VFR conditions prevail. However, to show
deference to the model, I included a scattered group for both SFO
and OAK to indicate the potential onset timing and height if a
more organized cloud layer does form.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Another tricky ceiling forecast here.
Both MRY and SNS did develop ceilings briefly this morning, but
the surface air is noticeably drier now (10-13% RH drop over 24
hours). While my gut instinct wants to keep the TAF VFR, the
probabilistic guidance is just too aggressive to ignore with
65-75% chance of MVFR ceilings. If ceilings form, the duration
will be much shorter than typical as there is no stratus bank
offshore to support any fledgling clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 926 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Overall conditions will be somewhat more favorable than they have
been over the last 48 hours. A fresh NW breeze will persist
through Thursday across the coastal waters. Winds will be locally
strong south of Point Sur. In protected waters winds will be
moderate in the early morning and fresh in the afternoons. Seas
will remain moderate in exposed waters through the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1155 AM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The fire weather threat will elevate this afternoon. Fires are
likely to be limited to the grass/brush fuel types and for a few
hours this afternoon, there could be some sites that flirt with or
briefly exceed our RFW matrix/criteria. The period with peak
winds should coincide with an increase in RH, though portions of
the East Bay Hills and lower elevations of the Santa Lucia Range
will likely see RH between 20 and 30 percent as the winds ramp up
this afternoon. Overnight RH recovery will remain poorest across
the higher reaches of the Santa Lucia Range, Santa Cruz Mountains,
Gabilan Range, and Eastern Santa Clara/East Bay Hills with values
between 20% and 40%. Elsewhere, RH should rebound above 50%. As
our subtle warming trend peaks later this week, with above normal
warmth returning in the days 8 to 14 range, we`ll see the fire
weather threat elevate again. Of particular note will be energy
release components approaching the 90th percentile for the Mid-
Coast to Mendocino predictive service area (North Bay) later this
week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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